需求维持刚需为主 菜籽油期价仍将承压

Core Viewpoint - The domestic oilseed market is experiencing mixed performance, with canola oil futures showing volatility and a downward trend in prices, influenced by various supply and demand factors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Canola oil futures opened at 9712.00 CNY/ton, with intraday fluctuations leading to a maximum of 9722.00 CNY and a minimum of 9449.00 CNY, reflecting a decline of approximately 2.09% [1]. - As of the end of week 43 in 2025, domestic imported canola seed inventory totaled 0 tons, a decrease of 0.6 tons from the previous week, compared to 700,000 tons during the same period last year [1]. - The number of canola oil futures warehouse receipts remained stable at 7840 as of October 28 [1]. Group 2: Future Market Outlook - According to Guotou Anxin Futures, the export of Australian canola to China remains unstable, influenced by recent statements from the Australian Prime Minister, which may affect the risk premium in the canola market [2]. - The supply pressure from the Canadian canola harvest is significant, with reduced exports impacting prices, while domestic policies regarding anti-dumping on Canadian canola are expected to tighten supply in the fourth quarter [2]. - The market is expected to see a rebound in canola meal prices in the short term, while canola oil prices are likely to remain under pressure due to ample soybean oil supply and strong demand primarily driven by necessity [2].