金价回测3845 多头防线能否守住？

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing fluctuations influenced by the Federal Reserve's policy direction and central bank gold purchases, with predictions of potential price movements in the near future [2][3]. Group 1: Current Gold Prices - As of October 29, gold is trading around $3,981.59 per ounce, with a slight increase of 0.23% from the previous day, reaching a high of $3,981.59 and a low of $3,916.03 [1]. - Despite a recent dip below $3,900 per ounce, the overall upward trend in gold prices remains intact, with expectations of trading between $3,900 and $4,000 per ounce [4]. Group 2: Market Predictions - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut in its upcoming meeting, which could support gold prices if central banks resume gold purchases [2]. - Market opinions are divided, with Bank of America lowering its fourth-quarter gold price forecast to $3,800 per ounce, citing overbuying as a reason for the recent pullback [2]. - Conversely, the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) remains optimistic, predicting gold prices could rise to $4,980 per ounce over the next 12 months, indicating differing institutional views on gold's long-term value [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is declining, suggesting increasing selling pressure and a bearish outlook [4]. - If gold prices break below the $3,900 support level, sellers may target the recent low of $3,886 and the 50-day simple moving average at approximately $3,779 [4]. - On the upside, if gold surpasses $4,000, resistance levels are identified at $4,100 and the peak of $4,161 from October 22 [5].