黄金回调夯实长期牛市根基

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices, which fell below the key psychological level of $4000, is being analyzed to determine whether it signals a peak or is merely a temporary fluctuation before a trend reversal [1][2]. Market Performance - Gold prices experienced a significant sell-off, dropping nearly 9% from the historical closing high of $4359.40 on October 20, with December futures settling at $3983.10 [2]. - The recent three-day decline saw gold prices decrease by over 4%, with a low of $3886.51 reached during the week [1][4]. Technical Analysis - The breach of the $4005 support level triggered a rapid decline in gold prices, leading to a drop of over $100 in a short period [4]. - If gold can reclaim and maintain above the $4000 mark, it would indicate a strong bullish signal, suggesting the long-term upward trend remains intact [5]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current market conditions may present a buying opportunity for investors as the Federal Reserve is expected to initiate a rate cut, which typically supports non-yielding assets like gold [2][3]. - The ongoing structural imbalance in global capital allocation, with excessive focus on the dollar and insufficient on gold, alongside rising sovereign risks, reinforces gold's position as a hedge against tail risks [3]. Support Levels - The 3600-3650 dollar range is identified as a potential support level for new bullish positions, indicating a phase of adjustment rather than a long-term downturn [2].