智通财经网·2025-10-29 06:33Core Insights - The rapid growth of AI Token consumption since 2025 has led to overly optimistic expectations regarding AI computing power investments and monetization prospects, particularly for companies like Google [1][2] - Despite the significant increase in Token consumption, the conversion into effective commercial returns remains insufficient, indicating that high growth in AI Tokens does not guarantee continued investment without breakthroughs in application scenarios and commercialization models [1][4] AI Token Consumption - Since 2025, Google's AI model capabilities and product penetration have significantly increased, with monthly Token consumption rising from 9.7 trillion in April 2024 to 1.3 quadrillion in September 2025, leading to widespread discussions about computing power demand [1] - In September, global Token consumption is estimated to reach 64 trillion, with Google accounting for approximately 20%, primarily driven by AI search (47%), API calls (26%), Gemini (24%), and Workspace (3%) [1] - By December 2026, Google's AI Token consumption is projected to reach 340 trillion [1] Computing Power Demand - The demand for AI inference computing power is closely linked to Token volume and model parameters, with predictions indicating a sevenfold increase in Google's monthly Token consumption by the end of 2026 compared to early 2025 [3] - Supply-side improvements in chip and system performance, along with software optimizations, could significantly reduce unit computing costs, as evidenced by NVIDIA's reported 1000-fold increase in computing power over eight years [3] Commercialization Challenges - The current level of Token monetization remains low, with a significant portion of Token consumption stemming from free or inefficient conversion scenarios, limiting actual commercial potential [4] - Key issues include limited direct monetization from AI search, a nascent subscription model with low conversion rates, and limited commercial value from API sales [4] - It is estimated that less than one-third of Token consumption translates into incremental commercial value, with most usage aimed at enhancing user engagement and competitive advantage [4]