Supermicro’s Q1 Outlook Weakens. What’s Next for SMCI Stock?

Core Viewpoint - Supermicro has lowered its revenue outlook for Q1 fiscal 2026 to approximately $5 billion, down from an earlier forecast of $6 to $7 billion, indicating a shift in expected revenue due to design win upgrades [1] Revenue Outlook - The revised forecast suggests a significant slowdown in growth for Supermicro, which previously reported $5.8 billion in revenue for the last quarter, reflecting a 7.4% year-over-year increase [2] - The company is now anticipating a year-over-year decline in sales for Q1 fiscal 2026, as it generated $5.94 billion in the same quarter last year [3] Profitability Impact - Analysts project that Supermicro's earnings per share (EPS) will decline nearly 46.3% year-over-year to $0.36 in Q1, indicating potential margin pressure due to slower revenue growth [3] Long-Term Prospects - Despite the short-term challenges, Supermicro continues to experience strong demand for its next-generation Blackwell Ultra systems, which utilize Nvidia's latest architecture [4] - The company has announced design wins exceeding $12 billion, with many orders expected for delivery in Q2 fiscal 2026, and customer engagement for new AI solutions is at record levels [5]