国内外库存端小幅去库 沪铝期货短线延续强势

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that domestic aluminum futures are showing a strong performance, with the main contract reported at 21,290.00 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.33% as of the report date [1] - During the period from October 20 to October 26, the domestic aluminum rod inventory was 43,000 tons, remaining stable compared to the previous week [2] - Rio Tinto announced that its Tomago aluminum smelter in New South Wales is facing high electricity costs and has initiated discussions with employees regarding operational prospects, considering the possibility of ceasing operations after the current electricity supply contract expires [2] Group 2 - According to a Reuters survey, the average price of LME aluminum is expected to be $2,598 per ton in 2025 and $2,679 per ton in 2026, which is higher than the projected $2,418 per ton in 2024. The aluminum market is anticipated to have a surplus of 236,000 tons in 2025 and 250,000 tons in 2026 [2] - Hongye Futures reported a slight improvement in domestic aluminum spot demand, with August aluminum exports around 520,000 tons, remaining stable, and a year-on-year increase of 1.8% in China's aluminum production in August [3] - Zhongcai Futures noted that while electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remains high with substantial profits, the approaching traditional off-season is leading to a divergence in downstream operating rates, resulting in an overall weakening. Domestic and international aluminum ingot inventories have slightly decreased, and concerns over market conditions are supported by the potential for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [3]