【环球财经】美联储10月或“盲判”降息，大类资产走势再迎考验

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00% during the FOMC meeting on October 28-29, 2023, due to a slowing U.S. job market and moderate inflation impact from tariffs [1][2] - Market expectations for a rate cut have intensified, with a 99.9% probability for a 25 basis point cut in October and a 91% probability for another cut in December, following lower-than-expected CPI data [2][3] - Analysts indicate that the Fed's statement will significantly influence market trends, with a dovish tone likely to weaken the dollar and benefit gold and global equities [1][8] Group 2: Labor Market and Economic Indicators - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of slowing down, with broad employment indicators indicating a deceleration, although there are no widespread layoffs or spending cuts reported [3][4] - The uncertainty surrounding the labor market remains a critical concern for the Fed, as the official employment data is currently in a "data vacuum" period [2][4] - Analysts express differing views within the Fed regarding the pace and extent of future rate cuts, reflecting varying assessments of economic risks [3][4] Group 3: Quantitative Tightening (QT) and Liquidity Concerns - There is speculation that the Fed may end its quantitative tightening (QT) policy soon, as liquidity pressures in the financial system are becoming evident [6][7] - Recent data shows a significant reduction in bank reserves, indicating that the current QT may be reaching a turning point [6][7] - Analysts suggest that the Fed's decision to halt QT could be a risk-minimizing choice in light of recent liquidity stress signals [6][7] Group 4: Market Reactions and Asset Performance - The market has already priced in the Fed's expected rate cuts, which is affecting the performance of various asset classes [8] - The dollar index is currently fluctuating between 98-99, facing downward pressure due to uncertainties related to tariffs and government shutdowns [8][9] - Analysts predict that gold and other precious metals will remain strong due to the anticipated Fed rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical factors [9][10]