美联储今夜必降息？三大终极悬念即将揭晓

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut during its October meeting, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.75%-4% with a 99.9% probability according to market expectations [1][3] Group 1: Rate Cut Expectations - The market anticipates a second consecutive rate cut, but there are internal divisions within the Fed regarding future monetary policy direction due to a lack of economic data caused by the government shutdown [3][4] - The ADP report indicated a decrease of 32,000 private sector jobs in September, reflecting a potentially worsening labor market [3][4] Group 2: Inflation Concerns - Despite acknowledging risks in the labor market, some Fed officials express concerns about inflation, with the core CPI rising 3% year-over-year, exceeding the Fed's target by one percentage point [4][6] - There is a significant divide among Fed officials, with some advocating for immediate rate cuts while others prefer a more cautious approach [4][6] Group 3: Economic Data Challenges - The government shutdown has led to a lack of critical economic data, complicating the Fed's ability to assess the current economic situation [7][8] - Analysts expect the Fed to communicate increased uncertainty regarding future policy paths due to the absence of comprehensive economic indicators [8] Group 4: Balance Sheet Reduction - There is speculation that the Fed may announce an end to its balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) during this meeting, as recent market conditions suggest a need for increased liquidity [9][12] - The Fed's decision on whether to continue reducing its balance sheet will depend on the state of bank reserves, which have recently fallen below $3 trillion [9][12] Group 5: Market Reactions - Recent large trades in the interest rate market indicate positioning for the Fed's potential announcement to end quantitative tightening, reflecting market expectations for a rate cut and a shift in policy [12][13] - The SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) currently stands at 4.24%, while the federal funds rate is at 4.11%, suggesting market adjustments in anticipation of the Fed's decisions [13]