美联储降息前瞻，市场聚焦美联储内部分歧

Core Viewpoint - The market widely anticipates a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in its upcoming meeting, with a 99.9% probability according to the CME's FedWatch tool, and a 91.0% chance of further cuts in December [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Cut Expectations - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement a rate cut in its October meeting, with significant market consensus [1] - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are highlighted, with some officials advocating for cautious cuts to avoid inflation rebound, while others support more aggressive cuts to address economic downturn risks [1] Group 2: Impact on Emerging Markets and Assets - If the rate cut pace exceeds expectations, emerging market assets, such as Chinese stocks (A+H) and bonds, may benefit from increased capital inflows due to narrowing interest rate differentials between China and the U.S. [1] - The anticipated rate cuts may lead to a continued weakening of the U.S. dollar, enhancing the attractiveness of the Hong Kong stock market to foreign investors, which could improve liquidity [1] Group 3: ETFs Benefiting from Market Trends - ETFs focusing on high-growth and high-resilience sectors, such as the Hang Seng Technology ETF (513180), Hang Seng Internet ETF (513330), and Hang Seng Healthcare ETF (159892), are expected to benefit from the favorable market conditions created by the anticipated rate cuts [1]