未来五年继续实施积极财政政策｜解读“十五五”

Core Insights - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the role of proactive fiscal policy and enhancing fiscal sustainability as a response to complex domestic and international situations [1][2][3] Fiscal Policy - The plan indicates a continuation of expansionary fiscal policies, highlighting the need for fiscal measures to support economic development during the transition period [3][4] - The shift in focus to proactive fiscal policy reflects the urgent need for counter-cyclical adjustments to stabilize the economy and foster new growth drivers [2][3] Fiscal Sustainability - The emphasis on enhancing fiscal sustainability is crucial for ensuring fiscal security, fulfilling government functions, and achieving national development goals [5][6] - Current fiscal challenges include insufficient effective demand and prominent fiscal revenue-expenditure contradictions, necessitating a focus on sustainable fiscal practices [5][6] Government Debt Management - The total government debt is projected to reach 92.6 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 68.7%, indicating manageable risk levels [5] - Future strategies to enhance fiscal sustainability include stabilizing the macro tax burden and optimizing tax policies to ensure long-term fiscal health [5][6] Tax Policy Adjustments - The plan suggests maintaining a reasonable macro tax burden, with current levels around 13% of GDP, potentially rising to approximately 15% [6] - Actions taken include the removal of certain tax exemptions and the expansion of tax bases, indicating a shift towards a more robust tax system [6]