需求韧性尚可 玻璃短期震荡略强

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for glass is experiencing a slight upward trend, but the overall demand remains weak due to challenges in the real estate sector [1][2]. Supply Analysis - Glass futures main contract closed at 1127.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.62% increase [1] - There has been no change in glass production lines, with operating rates and weekly supply remaining stable, leading to a continued rise in manufacturer inventory [1] - Year-on-year decline in glass production is narrowing, indicating a stabilization in supply [1] Demand Analysis - The real estate industry, the largest downstream demand sector for glass, is still in a sluggish state, posing significant pressure on future demand for glass [1] - Recent feedback from the terminal market shows a strong wait-and-see sentiment among homebuyers, difficulties in cash flow for real estate companies, and a decrease in new project starts, which weakens the demand pull for glass [1] Inventory Insights - Weekly inventory for float glass sample enterprises reached 66.613 million boxes, an increase of 2.3374 million boxes (3.64%) compared to the previous week [2] - Supply is slightly increasing, with a daily融 (融指) of 160,000 tons showing a slight loosening; expectations for improved demand in the fourth quarter are present, but the inventory reduction drive remains [2] - Short-term downstream orders are generally average, with demand resilience being moderate, and the improvement in order reception is still weak, leading to a slightly strong short-term fluctuation while waiting for demand validation [2]