Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-10-29 10:30Core Viewpoint - The company reported its Q3 2025 results, showing a decline in revenue but an increase in net profit, indicating a resilient performance despite challenging market conditions [1]. Financial Performance - For the first nine months of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 95.872 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.72%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 6.437 billion yuan, an increase of 15.87% [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company's revenue was 35.920 billion yuan, down 10.92% year-on-year, but net profit rose to 2.533 billion yuan, up 20.32%, slightly exceeding expectations [1]. - The total power generation for the first nine months was 201.329 billion kWh, a decrease of 5.87% compared to the adjusted figures from the previous year, but the decline was less severe than the 6.41% drop in the first half of 2025 [1]. Market Conditions - The average on-grid electricity price for the first nine months was 0.50955 yuan per kWh, down 2.76% from the adjusted figures of the previous year, indicating relative price stability [1]. - The average spot price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal in Q3 2025 was 672 yuan per ton, a decrease of 21% compared to Q3 2024 [1]. Capacity Price Mechanism - The upcoming increase in capacity prices is expected to benefit the company significantly, with the fixed cost for coal power units set to rise from 100 yuan to 165 yuan per kW starting in 2026, potentially increasing revenue by 3.536 billion yuan [2]. - The company holds a coal power installed capacity of 54.4 million kW, which positions it well to capitalize on the new capacity pricing structure [2]. Financial Cost Management - The company has effectively reduced financial costs, with financial expenses for the first nine months amounting to 2.414 billion yuan, a decrease of 444 million yuan year-on-year [2]. - The company is leveraging opportunities from interest rate cuts to further lower financial costs, contributing positively to its performance [2]. Profit Forecast - The profit forecasts for the company have been revised upwards for 2025-2027, with expected net profits of 6.895 billion, 7.658 billion, and 8.044 billion yuan respectively, reflecting improved margins and asset integration [3]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 9, 8, and 8 times for the respective years, maintaining a "buy" rating [3].