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(经济观察)重塑发展逻辑 中国楼市或迎四大变化
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang·2025-10-29 11:20

Core Viewpoint - The recently published "Suggestions on Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" emphasizes the importance of promoting high-quality development in the real estate sector, indicating a clear direction for the industry over the next five years [1] Group 1: Policy Shift - The "Suggestions" explicitly call for the promotion of high-quality development in real estate, reflecting a shift in the industry's development stage. The average urban housing area per person has exceeded 40 square meters, and the average household owns nearly 1.1 homes, signaling the end of the housing shortage era [2] - The new model for real estate development will focus on improving foundational systems in development, financing, and sales, moving away from short-term demand restrictions or stimuli [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Restructuring - The "Suggestions" propose optimizing the supply of affordable housing to meet the basic housing needs of urban wage earners and various disadvantaged families, expanding the coverage of housing security [3] - The emphasis on increasing the supply of improved housing based on local demand variations will be a key characteristic of housing supply during the 15th Five-Year Plan period [3] Group 3: Quality Improvement - The "Suggestions" highlight the need to build safe, comfortable, green, and smart homes, along with implementing quality improvement projects for housing and property services [4] - Ongoing initiatives such as the renovation of old neighborhoods and urban renewal aim to enhance housing quality and living standards [4] Group 4: Revitalizing Stock - The revitalization of existing stock is becoming a significant source of housing supply, with policies aimed at utilizing low-efficiency land, idle properties, and existing infrastructure [5] - As of October 24, the total amount of proposed special bonds for acquiring idle land has exceeded 620 billion yuan, indicating strong support for revitalizing existing land and properties [5]