Zhao: We're moving into a low hire, some fire job market

Core Insights - The job market is experiencing an increase in layoffs, particularly in white-collar sectors, with significant layoffs reported by UPS and Amazon, each announcing 14,000 job cuts [1][2] - The equilibrium in the job market has shifted, requiring only 30,000 jobs to be added monthly to maintain balance, down from 230,000 [3][5] - The decline in labor supply growth, largely due to reduced immigration, has contributed to this shift in job market dynamics [4][5] Labor Market Trends - Layoffs are rising to levels comparable to pre-pandemic times, indicating a potential increase in the unemployment rate and further weakening of the job market [2] - The current job market is characterized as a "low, higher, low fire" environment, suggesting a transition towards more layoffs and less hiring [1][2] Impact of Technology - AI is perceived as a job shifter rather than a job destroyer, with new technologies replacing specific tasks rather than entire jobs [6][7] - The impact of AI on job replacement is still modest, as businesses are primarily in the experimental phase with AI technologies [9][10] - While AI can perform certain tasks, it is unlikely to replace the human elements of jobs, such as communication and relationship building, in the short term [14]