What to Expect as the SPX Enters a Historically Bullish Period

Core Insights - The S&P 500 Index (SPX) has historically shown a seasonal trend where the period from May to October is weaker compared to the November to April period, with average returns of 1.95% and 6.5% respectively since 1964 [1][3] - This year, the SPX has experienced a remarkable performance from May to October, gaining over 20%, marking the best performance in this timeframe since 1938 [3][4] - The upcoming November to April period is expected to yield stronger returns based on historical data, particularly following a significant May-October performance [4] Performance Analysis - Historical data indicates that in years where the SPX gained at least 10% from May to October, the subsequent November-April period averaged a return of 10.7% with 78% of the returns positive [4] - The latest Investors Intelligence sentiment survey shows that 52.8% of market newsletters are bullish on stocks, which could influence future performance [5] - When investor expectations are high, the SPX has historically returned about 3.2% over the next six months, which is lower than periods of less optimism [6] Market Sentiment - The sentiment survey by Investors Intelligence reflects a bullish outlook among investors, which may impact the SPX's performance in the upcoming months [5] - Historical performance data suggests that when the SPX is near an all-time high at the start of November, it tends to struggle, averaging a return of just 1.4% over the following six months [7]