美股半年暴涨17万亿美元！投资者站在历史的十字路口：获利了结还是全盘梭哈？

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is experiencing a rare six-month consecutive rise, leading investors to face a dilemma of whether to take profits or continue to invest heavily [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has remained above the 50-day moving average for 125 consecutive trading days, marking the longest streak since 2011 [1][4] - The index has increased by 38% since early April, adding $17 trillion to its market capitalization, resulting in high valuations and increased market positions [1] - Historical data suggests that the best six months for U.S. stocks typically begin in November, raising questions about whether the current gains have already been priced in [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Dan Vantrobuski, a technical strategist, warns that the S&P 500 is in a precarious position and could drop by up to 10% before the end of December [1][5] - The current streak of 125 days is close to the second-longest in this century, which was 149 days in February 2007 [5] - The upcoming days are critical as major tech companies will report quarterly earnings and the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision [5] Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Concerns are growing regarding the valuations of large tech companies, with the 200-day moving average appearing stretched, indicating potential sell-offs [6] - Despite the high valuations, market sentiment remains slightly pessimistic due to ongoing trade war concerns and fears of a potential credit crisis [9] - The average increase for the S&P 500 in November over the past 30 years is approximately 2.5%, making it the strongest month for stock performance [9]