增程车越造越多，但销量“涨不动了” 极狐、小鹏等还有机会吗？

Core Viewpoint - The market for range-extended electric vehicles (REEVs) is experiencing a slowdown in sales growth, despite an increasing number of new models being introduced by various manufacturers. The competition is intensifying as companies adapt their strategies to enhance battery capacity and electric range to compete with pure electric vehicles (EVs) [1][2][4]. Market Trends - As of September, the wholesale sales of pure electric vehicles in China reached 947,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 32.4%, while REEVs sold 129,000 units, showing a year-on-year growth of only 8.7% [2]. - The market share of pure electric vehicles has grown to 63%, while REEVs have seen a decline in market share, dropping to 9% [2][6]. Technological Developments - The cost of key components, particularly lithium carbonate for batteries, has significantly decreased, allowing for lower prices of electric vehicles. The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate fell from approximately 600,000 yuan per ton in 2022 to around 70,000 yuan per ton, a drop of over 80% [3]. - New models with larger battery capacities are being introduced, such as the Leap Motor D19 with over 80 kWh, which exceeds many comparable pure electric models [5][6]. Competitive Strategies - Manufacturers are shifting their focus from "small battery + large range extender" to "large battery + small range extender" configurations to enhance the driving experience and compete more effectively with pure electric vehicles [4][6]. - Companies are emphasizing the need for a balance between battery size and cost, with some suggesting that not all REEVs should be equipped with large batteries, but rather focus on mid to high-end models [6][8]. Future Outlook - There is a growing consensus that REEVs will continue to have a place in the market, particularly for consumers in areas with limited charging infrastructure. However, the trend indicates that pure electric vehicles will dominate the market in the coming years, with projections suggesting that by 2040, pure electric vehicles will account for 80% of the new energy vehicle market [7][9].