环渤海动力煤价格已连续5周上涨

Core Viewpoint - The price index for thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region has increased for five consecutive weeks, reaching 685 yuan per ton, driven by supply constraints and rising heating demand, but is expected to face downward pressure due to improved transportation capacity and reduced consumption by downstream power plants [1][2]. Group 1: Price Trends - The Bohai Rim thermal coal price index rose by 1 yuan per ton week-on-week, marking a continuous increase for five weeks [1]. - Factors contributing to the price increase include expectations of supply constraints, cost support, and heightened demand for heating [1]. - The index's growth rate has narrowed due to the end of maintenance on the Daqin railway, which restored transportation capacity, and a decline in daily consumption by power plants [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - On the supply side, safety production assessments and the completion of monthly production tasks by some coal mines have led to enhanced expectations of supply constraints [1]. - Northern ports are experiencing shortages, and traders are maintaining a firm pricing stance due to increased heating demand as winter approaches [1]. - Conversely, on the demand side, the daily consumption of coal by coastal power plants has decreased to 1.8 million tons, and inventory levels have risen, leading to a more cautious market outlook [2]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - The market is currently characterized by a strong bearish sentiment, influenced by price reductions from major groups and a pause in purchases by traders [1][2]. - The overall demand remains weak, creating a balance with the tight supply of high-quality low-sulfur coal resources [2]. - Future price movements will depend on the actual release of winter storage demand and potential adjustments in railway freight rates [2].