【环球财经】市场警惕美联储鹰派意外 新版ADP数据或打击12月降息信心

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the target range to 3.75%-4.00%, and ending its quantitative tightening policy, with focus on future policy guidance [1][2] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a steady pace, but the government shutdown has affected data availability [2] - The overall inflation rate in the U.S. rose slightly to 3% in September, while the core inflation rate decreased marginally to 3% [2] - The ADP report indicates an average of 14,250 new jobs per week over the four weeks ending October 11, 2025, totaling approximately 57,000 jobs, significantly above the estimated breakeven point of 30,000 jobs per month [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Policy Outlook - Analysts expect a division within the Federal Reserve's decision-making body, with some members advocating for a larger rate cut, while others may prefer to maintain current rates [2][4] - Fed Chair Powell is likely to frame any rate cuts as risk management measures, emphasizing that future decisions will depend on subsequent data performance [3] - If the ADP data shows a strong rebound, Powell may adopt a more cautious stance regarding future rate cuts, which could be interpreted as a hawkish surprise by the market [3]