预算出炉前英国工党立场转变 首相斯塔默不排除上调三大税种

Core Viewpoint - UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has not ruled out the possibility of increasing income tax, national insurance, or VAT in the upcoming budget, indicating a potential breach of significant commitments made by the Labour Party during the last election [1][2] Group 1: Tax Policy Implications - Starmer's recent comments suggest a shift in the Labour Party's stance on tax commitments, which could impact the Chancellor's ability to manage the budget effectively [1] - The freezing of income tax thresholds could lead to more individuals being pushed into higher tax brackets due to nominal wage increases, resulting in higher tax payments without real income growth [2] - The Resolution Foundation has proposed a tax strategy that involves lowering employee national insurance by 2 percentage points while increasing the basic income tax rate by the same amount, potentially generating an additional £6 billion for the Treasury [3] Group 2: Economic Context - The Office for Budget Responsibility has downgraded its productivity forecasts for the UK economy, which could result in a public finance hit exceeding £20 billion (approximately $26 billion) [2] - The Chancellor may face a fiscal gap of up to £35 billion due to costly policy reversals and higher borrowing costs, complicating efforts to restore the previous £9.9 billion "error buffer" [2]