Analysts Estimate Acadia Healthcare (ACHC) to Report a Decline in Earnings: What to Look Out for

Core Viewpoint - Acadia Healthcare (ACHC) is anticipated to report a year-over-year decline in earnings despite an increase in revenues for the quarter ending September 2025, with the actual results being a significant factor influencing its near-term stock price [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is scheduled for November 5, and if the results exceed expectations, the stock may rise; conversely, a miss could lead to a decline [2]. - The consensus estimate for quarterly earnings is $0.72 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 20.9%, while revenues are projected to be $853.31 million, representing a 4.6% increase from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised 1.73% higher, indicating a collective reassessment by analysts [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for Acadia Healthcare is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -9.79%, suggesting a bearish outlook from analysts [12]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that a positive or negative reading can predict the deviation of actual earnings from consensus estimates, with positive readings being more reliable [9][10]. - Acadia Healthcare currently holds a Zacks Rank of 4, which complicates the prediction of an earnings beat [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Acadia Healthcare was expected to post earnings of $0.71 per share but achieved $0.83, resulting in a surprise of +16.90% [13]. - Over the past four quarters, the company has exceeded consensus EPS estimates three times [14]. Conclusion - Acadia Healthcare does not appear to be a strong candidate for an earnings beat, and investors should consider additional factors when making decisions regarding the stock ahead of the earnings release [17].