刚刚！加拿大央行降息25个基点

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Canada has lowered its policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, aligning with market expectations, due to economic weakness and anticipated inflation remaining near the 2% target [1][5]. Economic Conditions - The Canadian economy is experiencing persistent weakness, with a high unemployment rate of 7.1% and low business investment and hiring intentions [7]. - The central bank's economic forecasts have been downgraded, with GDP growth expectations for 2025 reduced to 1.2% and 2026 to 1% [5]. - Core inflation remains stubbornly around 3%, while broader indicators suggest potential inflation at approximately 2.5% [5]. Trade Relations - The trade conflict with the U.S. has negatively impacted Canada's economic outlook, with tariffs causing structural damage that reduces production capacity and increases costs [5][8]. - Recent announcements of additional tariffs on Canadian goods by the U.S. have heightened tensions in bilateral trade relations [8]. Monetary Policy Outlook - The Bank of Canada has indicated that the current rate cut may mark the end of its easing cycle unless there are significant changes in inflation or economic conditions [9]. - Most economists predict that the policy rate will remain at 2.25% until the end of the following year, with only a few expecting further reductions below 2% [9].