Chipotle set to report third quarter earnings, looks to reverse sales slide with stock down 30% this year

Core Insights - Chipotle is expected to report third quarter results with adjusted earnings per share of $0.29 and revenue of $3.02 billion, reflecting a 7% increase in adjusted EPS and an 8.6% increase in revenue year-over-year [1] - Same-store sales are projected to rise by 1% after a 4% decline in the previous quarter, driven by higher menu prices, which are expected to increase by nearly 2%, despite a slight decrease in foot traffic of about 0.4% [2] Financial Performance - The company has faced a significant decline in stock value, down over 30% this year, and is looking to stabilize its performance for investors [1] - Following the second quarter results, the CEO indicated ongoing volatility in consumer trends, leading to a reduction in the full-year same-store sales forecast, marking the second cut of the year [3][4] Sales Forecast - Analysts anticipate a full-year same-store sales decline of 0.7%, suggesting that investors are preparing for another guidance reduction from the company [4] - The company previously adjusted its expectations for flat full-year same-store sales, down from an anticipated low-single-digit increase [4] Market Challenges - Factors contributing to the slowdown in same-store sales include weakness among low-income consumers, rising unemployment among young adults, and reduced throughput gains following a notable improvement in 2024 [5] - The introduction of a new dip, Adobo Ranch, has not significantly boosted the company's value proposition as expected [5] - There is a suspicion that Chipotle needs to improve its value perception, as certain pricing strategies, such as $1 sauce add-ons, may be counterproductive [6]