Amgen's Q3 Earnings in the Cards: Here's What to Expect

Core Insights - Amgen (AMGN) is set to report its third-quarter 2025 results on November 4, with earnings expected to be $5.00 per share and sales at $8.94 billion, reflecting a 14.5% earnings surprise in the last quarter [1][9] Sales Performance - Strong volume growth from products like Evenity, Repatha, and Blincyto is anticipated to drive sales, with consensus estimates for these products at $519 million, $720 million, and $413 million respectively [2] - The company's own estimates for Evenity, Repatha, and Blincyto are slightly lower at $463.9 million, $672.2 million, and $395.5 million respectively [3] - Sales of RANKL antibodies, Prolia, and Xgeva are expected to decline significantly due to patent expirations and the launch of three biosimilars in the U.S. market [4] New Product Contributions - Newer drugs such as Imdelltra, Tavneos, and Tezspire are projected to contribute positively to top-line growth, with consensus estimates for Tezspire and Tavneos at $364 million and $119 million respectively [5] - The company's estimates for Tezspire and Tavneos are $270.6 million and $120.7 million respectively [5] Competitive Pressures - Kyprolis is expected to face continued competitive pressure, with consensus sales estimates at $374 million and the company's estimate at $372.6 million [6] - Enbrel sales are likely to decline due to price reductions, while Otezla is expected to benefit from volume growth, with consensus estimates for Otezla at $582 million and Enbrel at $645 million [6] Recent Acquisitions - Sales of rare disease drugs Tepezza, Krystexxa, and Uplizna, acquired from Horizon in October 2023, showed improvement in the second quarter and are expected to continue this trend [7] Biosimilar Market Impact - Lower revenues from oncology biosimilars and legacy products are anticipated, although newer biosimilars like Wezlana and Pavblu may contribute to sales growth [8][10] Financial Outlook - Higher R&D costs are likely to impact operating margins negatively in the third quarter [11] - Amgen's earnings surprise history shows a strong performance, with an average surprise of 11.75% over the last four quarters [12] Earnings Prediction - The current Earnings ESP for Amgen is -1.25%, indicating uncertainty regarding an earnings beat this quarter [14]