“托底”式降息完成？加央行称利率已大致合适 未来或按兵不动

Core Points - The Bank of Canada has lowered the benchmark overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, marking the lowest level since July 2022 [1] - The central bank has significantly downgraded its growth forecasts, citing long-term impacts from U.S. tariffs that have structurally damaged the Canadian economy [4] - The central bank's decision comes as the Canadian government prepares to unveil a budget focused on infrastructure and major projects to support growth [4] Economic Outlook - The Bank of Canada expects the economy to be in a state of excess supply for the foreseeable future, with growth forecasts for the second half of 2025 reduced to 0.75% [5] - Compared to January predictions, the central bank has lowered its growth expectations for 2025 from 1.8% to 1.2% and for 2026 from 1.8% to 1.1% [5] - The central bank acknowledges that the impact of tariffs has raised business costs and increased uncertainty, leading to continued weakness in business investment and consumer growth [5][6] Monetary Policy - The current overnight rate of 2.25% is at the lower end of the central bank's assessed neutral rate range, indicating a balance that neither stimulates nor suppresses the economy [6] - The central bank is cautious about further stimulus to avoid reigniting inflation amid global price and supply chain disruptions [5][6] - There is a possibility of further rate cuts, but the timing may be delayed until early 2026, depending on economic conditions and fiscal policies [6]