三举措破解电芯供需失衡痛点

Core Insights - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that in the first nine months of this year, new domestic energy storage project tenders reached 255.8 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 97.7%. It is expected that total lithium battery demand will exceed 2700 GWh next year, with a growth rate of over 30%, and energy storage battery demand surpassing 900 GWh, potentially leading to shortages in various segments of lithium [1] Group 1 - The industry is currently facing high capacity utilization rates among leading lithium battery companies, resulting in full order books and a situation where battery cells are in high demand. This has highlighted structural issues of "low-end surplus and high-end shortage" due to intense competition [1] - The industry needs to shift from a reliance on scale expansion and price competition to a new development model focused on technological breakthroughs and quality upgrades, thereby returning to value competition and reconstructing core competitiveness [1] Group 2 - Industry chain collaboration is essential to smooth out cyclical fluctuations, and stakeholders should work together to build a recycling system. Data from the State Administration for Market Regulation indicates that by 2024, domestic power battery recycling volume will exceed 300,000 tons, corresponding to a market size of over 48 billion yuan, with expectations to surpass 100 billion yuan by 2030 [1][2] - Leading companies have already achieved significant economic, social, and ecological benefits in energy recovery. For instance, CATL has achieved a nickel-cobalt-manganese recovery rate of 99.6% and a lithium recovery rate of 96.5%. The industry needs to create a closed-loop ecosystem from "mineral extraction—production—recycling" to stabilize the supply chain and reduce capacity cycle fluctuations [2] Group 3 - Establishing a capacity warning mechanism is crucial for transitioning the industry from "scale incentives" to "quality control." The recently released "Special Action Plan for Large-Scale Construction of New Energy Storage (2025-2027)" specifies that by 2027, the new energy storage installed capacity nationwide should exceed 180 million kilowatts [3] - Companies should develop a scientific capacity warning mechanism based on key indicators such as capacity utilization rates, product price fluctuations, and corporate profitability to support production planning and promote long-term development through data-driven decision-making [3] Group 4 - Global layout provides space to navigate capacity cycles. In response to differentiated international market demands, local production has become a common choice for leading companies. In global expansion, companies should match regional demands and conditions precisely, such as focusing on high-end power battery supply in Europe and establishing production capacity and resource recovery bases in Southeast Asia [4] - Through industry chain collaboration, mechanism optimization, and global layout initiatives, the industry is expected to resolve structural supply-demand imbalances and move towards a new stage of high-quality development [4]