Will Lower Premiums Affect Cigna's Q3 Earnings? Key Insights Here

Core Insights - The Cigna Group is scheduled to report its third-quarter 2025 results on October 30, 2025, with earnings estimated at $7.70 per share and revenues of $67.16 billion [1][7]. Earnings Estimates - The earnings estimate for Q3 2025 has increased by $0.01 over the past 60 days, indicating a year-over-year growth of 2.5%, while revenues are projected to grow by 5.4% year-over-year [2]. - For the full year 2025, the revenue estimate stands at $267.39 billion, reflecting an 8.2% increase year-over-year, and the EPS estimate is $29.69, signaling an 8.6% growth [3]. Performance Indicators - Cigna has beaten earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of negative 1.2% [3]. - The company has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), indicating uncertainty regarding an earnings beat this quarter [4]. Revenue Breakdown - Evernorth revenues are expected to rise by 9%, with pharmacy and fee income showing double-digit growth [7]. - Pharmacy revenues are projected to improve by 10.1% year-over-year, while fees and other revenues are expected to grow by 10.3% [8]. - The overall Evernorth Health Services segment is estimated to generate $57.2 billion in revenues, indicating a 9% growth from the prior year [9]. Challenges - Premiums are expected to decline by 21.1% year-over-year, with total medical customers projected to decrease to 18.1 million from 19 million a year ago [9]. - Cigna Healthcare revenues are estimated to decrease by 17.9%, with pre-tax adjusted income expected to decline by 13.7% year-over-year [10]. - The medical care ratio (MCR) is projected to rise to 84.15%, up from 82.80% a year ago, indicating pressure on margins due to higher pharmacy and service costs [10]. Peer Performance - UnitedHealth reported adjusted EPS of $2.92, beating estimates but reflecting a 59.2% year-over-year decline [11]. - Molina Healthcare's adjusted EPS of $1.84 missed estimates, with a 69.4% year-over-year decline attributed to higher medical care costs [12]. - Elevance Health reported adjusted EPS of $6.03, surpassing estimates but showing a 29.9% year-over-year drop due to elevated expenses [13].