10-year Treasury yield surges back above 4% after Powell says December rate cut far from certain

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has cut the benchmark federal funds rate for the second time this year, but future rate cuts are uncertain as indicated by Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments on differing views within the committee regarding December's meeting [2][3]. Group 1: Treasury Yields - The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield increased by 7 basis points to 4.053% [1] - The 2-year Treasury note yield rose by 9 basis points to 3.58% [1] - The 30-year bond yield climbed 5 basis points to 4.598% [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve cut the benchmark federal funds rate by a quarter percentage point to a range of 3.75% to 4% [2] - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 70% probability of another interest rate cut at the December meeting [2] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve slightly upgraded its economic outlook, noting moderate expansion in economic activity [3] - Job gains have slowed, and while the unemployment rate has increased slightly, it remains low [3] Group 4: Expert Opinions - Michael Pearce from Oxford Economists suggests the Fed may pause its rate-cutting cycle in the near term, anticipating a stabilization in labor market conditions [4] - The forecast includes three rate cuts at a quarterly pace in 2026 [4]