加拿大央行如期下调政策利率25基点，暗示“降息到这里差不多够了”

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Canada has lowered its policy interest rate by 25 basis points, signaling that it is nearing the end of its current rate-cutting cycle unless further economic shocks arise from trade conflicts with the U.S. [1][2] Economic Forecasts - The Bank of Canada has revised its economic growth forecasts downward, projecting a growth rate of 1.2% for 2025 and 1.1% for 2026, down from previous estimates of 1.8% for both years [4] - The Canadian economy contracted by 1.6% in the second quarter due to U.S. tariff impacts, with concerns that the third quarter may also struggle to recover [4] - The central bank's forecasts indicate an annualized growth of 0.5% for the third quarter and 1% for the fourth quarter [4] Monetary Policy Implications - The Bank of Canada acknowledges that trade conflicts have caused structural damage to the economy, limiting its supply capacity and increasing costs, which in turn restricts the effectiveness of monetary policy [4][5] - The central bank's current policy rate is deemed appropriate to keep inflation near 2% while aiding the economy during this structural adjustment period [5] Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the rate cut and the indication that the easing cycle may be nearing its end, the Canadian dollar strengthened, reaching its highest level since October 1 [8] - Canadian government bond yields rose across the board, and expectations for further rate cuts in December decreased from over 30% to about 20% [8] Upcoming Economic Events - The timing of the Bank of Canada's rate decision coincides with the upcoming federal budget announcement by Prime Minister Carney, expected to focus on infrastructure and major projects to stimulate growth amid trade headwinds [10] - Market analysts suggest that while the central bank may hold rates steady at 2.25%, significant uncertainties remain, particularly with the anticipated acceleration of CUSMA negotiations next year [10]