降息后再泼冷水！鲍威尔“鹰派”表态引发美债创近五个月来最大单日跌幅

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut has led to a significant drop in U.S. Treasury yields, marking the largest single-day decline in nearly five months, while Chairman Powell's strong policy signals have created uncertainty regarding future rate cuts [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate to 3.75%-4% amid a weakening labor market, but Powell indicated that further cuts in December are not guaranteed, impacting the $30 trillion Treasury market [1]. - The Fed will end its quantitative tightening (QT) operations on December 1, having removed over $2 trillion from the system since June 2022 [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following Powell's comments, the two-year Treasury yield rose by 11 basis points to 3.6%, reflecting a significant repricing of policy expectations [1]. - Market expectations for the implied rate cut by September 2026 increased from 3% to 3.15% [1]. - The meeting's outcome deviated from initial market expectations, which anticipated a 25 basis point cut and a quicker end to QT, now accompanied by hawkish signals that may prolong selling pressure on Treasuries [3]. Group 3: Diverging Opinions - There are notable divisions among Fed officials regarding the labor market risks and the appropriate level of the neutral interest rate, with some advocating for larger cuts while others suggest delaying action [2]. - Concerns about differing viewpoints among committee members have diminished as Powell's term nears its end [2].