Dollar Trades Slightly Lower Ahead of FOMC Meeting Results

Group 1 - The dollar index (DXY00) is trading slightly lower by -0.05% ahead of the 2-day FOMC meeting, which may result in a dovish outcome with potential hints of further rate cuts and an end to quantitative tightening [1] - The ongoing US government shutdown is putting pressure on the dollar, with concerns that prolonged shutdowns could harm the US economy and lead to interest rate cuts by the Fed [1] - The markets are pricing in a 98% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting, with expectations of an overall 115 basis point reduction by the end of 2026 [3] Group 2 - The dollar has underlying support from a +0.6 basis point rise in the 10-year T-note yield, as well as stronger-than-expected reports from the Richmond Fed and US consumer confidence [2] - The FOMC meeting will not release a Summary of Economic Projections, meaning no updates on the Fed's dot plot will be provided, but Fed Chair Powell will address the media post-meeting [4] - There is market anticipation for an update on the potential end of the Fed's quantitative tightening, which could positively impact stock and bond markets by increasing liquidity [5] Group 3 - The August FHFA US house price index rose +0.4% month-over-month, exceeding expectations of a -0.1% decline, while the S&P CoreLogic CS US 20-city house index rose +0.19% month-over-month and +1.58% year-over-year, also surpassing expectations [6] - The October Richmond Fed manufacturing index increased by 13 points to -4, which was stronger than market expectations of a 5-point rise to -12 [6]