【粮食大事】我国大豆供应链韧性持续增强

Core Insights - China maintains strategic stability in the face of international market fluctuations, ensuring food security and economic stability by controlling its soybean supply chain [1][2] Group 1: Soybean Market Dynamics - The international soybean market is experiencing a divergence, with stable prices in the U.S. and significant premiums in Brazil, while Chinese enterprises are slowing down soybean purchases [1] - China is the world's largest soybean consumer, with an annual consumption exceeding 100 million tons, but a low self-sufficiency rate, leading to imports of over 80 million tons primarily from Brazil, the U.S., and Argentina [1][3] - To mitigate structural risks, China is diversifying its import channels and enhancing domestic production capabilities, transitioning from being a "price taker" to an "active planner" in the global soybean market [1][2] Group 2: Supply Chain Resilience - China has diversified its soybean import sources, strengthening partnerships with traditional suppliers and exploring new ones like Russia and Ethiopia, enhancing its ability to respond to market risks [2] - Sufficient soybean reserves act as a stabilizing force in the market, allowing China to manage procurement rhythms and avoid price spikes during concentrated purchasing periods [2] - In extreme situations, these reserves can serve as a strategic tool to counteract price hikes or supply restrictions from exporting countries [2] Group 3: Domestic Production and Self-Sufficiency - China's soybean self-sufficiency rate has improved, with domestic production exceeding 20 million tons for three consecutive years, and an increase of 4 percentage points expected by 2024 compared to 2020 [3] - The expansion of domestic soybean production is expected to alter international market expectations regarding China's import demand, potentially leading to downward pressure on international soybean prices [3] Group 4: Feed and Protein Supply - Soybean meal is a critical protein source for the livestock industry, and its demand is rising due to expanding farming scales, making it a significant driver of soybean imports [4] - To reduce reliance on imported soybeans, China is implementing measures to decrease soybean meal usage, including promoting low-protein diets and exploring alternative protein sources [4] - This shift aims to create a more resilient and sustainable protein supply system, alleviating pressure on soybean imports and enhancing the security of the soybean supply chain [4]