美联储下调利率25个基点，年度收官决议待定

Group 1: Federal Reserve Decision - The Federal Reserve lowered the interest rate range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% with a 10-2 vote, indicating significant internal disagreement among committee members regarding future rate actions [1][4] - Fed Chairman Powell acknowledged the divisions within the committee, stating that a December rate cut is not guaranteed [1][4] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, with employment growth slowing and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, although it remains low [2][3] - The recent government shutdown is expected to have a lasting impact on economic activity, with the Congressional Budget Office estimating a GDP loss of at least $7 billion due to the shutdown [2] Group 3: Labor Market Insights - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with companies announcing significant layoffs, including Amazon (14,000 jobs), Paramount (1,000 jobs), and UPS (48,000 jobs) [3][4] - Powell noted that many companies are reducing hiring or initiating layoffs, often citing the impact of artificial intelligence [4] Group 4: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Powell indicated that current inflation levels are close to the 2% target when excluding tariff impacts, estimating that tariffs contribute approximately 0.5 to 0.6 percentage points to core PCE inflation [4] - The Fed plans to end quantitative tightening on December 1, 2023, and will reinvest proceeds from maturing mortgage-backed securities into short-term Treasury bills [5][6] Group 5: Future Economic Outlook - Despite the government shutdown, economic growth is expected to accelerate, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecasting a near 4% growth rate for the current quarter [7] - Businesses are cautious about future investments and hiring due to uncertainties surrounding tariff policies, with many expressing concerns about the economic outlook [8]