Powell "Keeping Options Open," Mind Tariff Risk & Gold's Decline

Economic Outlook - The US economy is experiencing a multi-speed recovery, with AI-related projects driving fixed investment while other sectors, such as residential construction, are slowing down [6][7] - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut rates by 25 basis points was anticipated, but there are concerns about the market overpricing future cuts [2][3] Labor Market - There is a significant decline in white-collar jobs due to the impact of AI, with tens of thousands of positions disappearing [4][5] - The labor supply and demand dynamics are slowing, indicating a challenging environment for job growth [8] Market Reactions - The markets are reacting to the potential for a truce in tariff negotiations, particularly regarding chip sales and agricultural purchases from China [9][11] - There is ongoing uncertainty regarding tariffs, which may persist even if a temporary agreement is reached [12] Commodity Insights - Gold prices have seen a decline from recent highs, attributed to profit-taking after a significant run-up in an inflationary environment [13] - The outlook for gold remains positive in the context of easy financial conditions, while other metals like copper may gain traction [14] Energy Sector - OPEC+ is considering a modest production hike to compensate for reduced Russian oil supply, but supply concerns are currently capping prices [15]