中金：美联储如期降息25个基点 本轮降息的刺激效应或将弱于以往周期

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October aligns with market expectations, but Chairman Powell's hawkish comments suggest that a December rate cut is not guaranteed, indicating a growing internal division within the Fed [1][2] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions and Statements - The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points in October, with two dissenting votes: one for a 50 basis point cut and another for no change, highlighting increasing internal disagreements [1] - Powell emphasized that a further reduction in December is not a foregone conclusion, indicating significant internal divisions among Fed officials regarding future actions [2] - The Fed's monetary policy statement showed little change from September, noting a slowdown in job growth and a rise in unemployment, while inflation remains elevated [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Implications - The labor market is slowing but not deteriorating rapidly, with indicators showing a gradual decline in job growth, suggesting that further rate cuts depend on worsening employment conditions [2] - Inflation remains significantly above the Fed's target, with the PCE inflation rate estimated at 2.8% in September, reflecting persistent upward pressure on prices [3] Group 3: Future Monetary Policy Outlook - The Fed has room for further policy easing, but the pace of rate cuts may slow, transitioning from "cutting at every meeting" to "quarterly cuts" as the policy rate approaches neutral levels [3] - The expected impact of rate cuts on the economy may be limited due to a weakened refinancing effect, as many homeowners locked in low rates previously, reducing the incentive for refinancing [4] Group 4: Quantitative Tightening and Asset Management - The Fed plans to end quantitative tightening (QT) on December 1, stopping the reduction of U.S. Treasury holdings while continuing to reinvest maturing securities [4][5] - This decision is seen as a technical adjustment to address liquidity concerns and manage the average duration of the Fed's asset portfolio, shifting from long-term MBS to short-term T-bills [5]