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Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment in international gold prices, following a significant rise, has sparked discussions among investors regarding the future of the gold market and its potential risks and opportunities [1] Group 1: Drivers of the Current Gold Bull Market - The current gold bull market, which began in 2018, has seen gold prices rise from under $1,800 per ounce to nearly $4,400 per ounce, an increase of over 150% [1] - The core drivers of this bull market are identified as the interplay of de-globalization, de-dollarization, and the normalization of geopolitical risks [2] - Long-term trends indicate that de-globalization has weakened the credit of the dollar, while the demand for gold as a hard currency has increased due to its lack of sovereign credit backing [2] - Central banks have significantly increased their gold purchases, with annual purchases exceeding 1,000 tons from 2022 to 2024, more than double the average of the previous decade [2] Group 2: Characteristics of the Current Gold Bull Market - The current bull market differs from historical ones in terms of support, pricing logic, and market nature [5] - The support for this bull market has shifted from market-driven investment to official allocations, with central bank purchases now accounting for 23% of total gold demand, up from 14.8% in 2018 [5] - The pricing logic has evolved from being driven by single factors to a multi-factor resonance, allowing gold prices to rise independently of traditional influences like the dollar's strength or bond yields [5][6] - The nature of the market has transitioned from being event-driven to trend-driven, suggesting a more sustained upward trajectory rather than rapid fluctuations [6] Group 3: Gold's Unique Value Proposition - In a highly uncertain investment environment, gold's unique value lies in its role as a hedge against currency credit risks, unlike stocks and bonds that are tied to economic fundamentals [7] - Gold serves as a volatility buffer in asset portfolios, with its correlation to risk assets decreasing over time, providing stability during economic downturns [7] - The scarcity of gold, with global production growth at only 1% to 2% annually, combined with rising central bank demand, creates a long-term value proposition that is unmatched by other assets [7] Group 4: Future Outlook and Investment Strategies - The gold market is expected to maintain a "long-term slow bull, with periodic fluctuations" over the next 3 to 5 years, driven by the reconstruction of currency credit [8] - Investors are advised to adopt a long-term perspective, viewing gold as an asset insurance rather than a quick profit tool, and to adjust their investment tools based on their risk tolerance [9] - For conservative investors, a 15% to 20% allocation of household assets to gold is recommended, while more aggressive investors should carefully manage their positions in futures or gold stocks to mitigate risks [9]