机构：电力板块有望迎来盈利改善和价值重估

Core Insights - The cumulative electricity market transaction volume in China reached 49,239 billion kilowatt-hours from January to September, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.2% and accounting for 63.4% of the total electricity consumption, an increase of 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 1: Industry Outlook - The electricity sector is expected to see profit improvement and value reassessment following multiple rounds of electricity supply-demand tensions [1] - The rapid growth of new energy installations and ongoing emphasis on energy security policies suggest that the peak value of coal power will continue to be highlighted [1] - The construction of a new power system under the dual carbon goals will likely continue to rely on the enrichment and investment in system regulation methods [1] Group 2: Market Mechanisms - The formal introduction of a capacity pricing mechanism clarifies the foundational role of coal power, and the promotion of electricity spot markets and ancillary service market mechanisms is expected to continue [1] - The ongoing market reform in the electricity sector is anticipated to lead to a stable increase in electricity prices [1] Group 3: Coal Power Sector - The National Development and Reform Commission's increased efforts to ensure long-term coal supply contracts are expected to marginally improve the actual performance rate of these contracts [1] - Coal power companies are likely to maintain controllable costs, benefiting from self-owned coal or a high proportion of long-term coal contracts [1] - The performance of electricity operators is expected to significantly improve in the future [1] Group 4: Short-term Performance Expectations - In 2025, annual long-term contract electricity prices are expected to decrease in various regions, while capacity prices for thermal power will rise comprehensively next year [2] - The third-quarter performance of thermal power is showing an upward trend, with the rebound in coal prices enhancing expectations for stable electricity prices [2] - The improvement in water supply during the autumn flood season for hydropower, combined with a shift in investment focus, suggests a need for careful asset allocation [2] - Frequent issuance of energy storage policies indicates that there is still room for improvement in the capacity compensation mechanism, highlighting the value of regulatory power sources [2]