机构：锂供需将逐渐转为平衡 锂价底部有望抬升

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China has established a complete lithium product supply system, with production of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and other lithium products leading globally for several consecutive years [1] - According to CITIC Securities, the demand for energy storage batteries is expected to exceed expectations due to storage policy support, with an anticipated increase in demand for power batteries driven by higher single-vehicle energy capacity and trade-in policies [1] - The lithium industry is expected to experience a supply surplus from 2025 to 2028, with surplus amounts projected at 101,000 tons, 78,000 tons, 29,000 tons, and 11,000 tons respectively, indicating a gradual shift towards supply-demand balance and potential price recovery [1] Group 2 - Guotai Junan Securities notes that strong demand and destocking expectations are driving lithium prices upward, with new production lines coming online for both spodumene and salt lake lithium, leading to steady supply increases [2] - The demand side remains robust, with significant growth in power batteries and a thriving energy storage market, as evidenced by a 5% year-on-year increase in retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in October [2] - The operating rates of downstream manufacturers continue to rise, providing support for spot transactions, while low-cost production capacity is still being released, indicating ongoing production pressure [2]