美联储结束缩表并再度降息 12月政策路径存重大分歧

Core Points - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, marking the second consecutive rate cut since September, aligning with market expectations [1] - The decision received majority support, but two members opposed it, indicating a division in policy stance [1] Economic Assessment - The FOMC noted that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, with employment growth slowing and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, although it remains low [2] - Inflation has risen compared to earlier in the year and remains relatively high, which is a key factor in the decision to cut rates [2] Balance Sheet Management - The FOMC announced the end of balance sheet reduction operations starting December 1, with a monthly reduction of $50 billion in U.S. Treasuries and $35 billion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) [3] - MBS principal repayments will be reinvested into short-term U.S. Treasuries, marking the end of a three-year quantitative tightening phase [3] Policy Outlook - There is uncertainty regarding further rate cuts in December, as the FOMC emphasized a data-dependent approach to future monetary policy adjustments [4] - The availability of key economic data may be impacted by the partial government shutdown, which could influence the decision-making process for the December meeting [4] Internal Divergence - FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell highlighted significant internal disagreement regarding the next steps in policy, with some members advocating for a pause to assess economic conditions, while others support further rate cuts [5][11] - The committee's decision-making will be based on the latest data and changes in economic outlook and risk balance [11]