加拿大央行降息至2.25% 暗示本轮宽松或近尾声

Core Points - The Bank of Canada has lowered its key overnight interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, the lowest level since July 2022, marking the fourth rate cut in 2025 [1] - The central bank aims to mitigate the impact of U.S. trade policy adjustments on the Canadian economy while keeping inflation around the 2% target [1] - The Bank of Canada's latest economic forecast shows a significant reduction in GDP growth projections, with 2025's real GDP growth rate revised down from 1.8% to 1.2% [1][2] Economic Outlook - The Bank of Canada expects the overall inflation rate for 2025 to be 2.0%, down from a previous forecast of 2.3%, with 2026 and 2027 remaining at 2.1% [2] - The central bank has noted that oil price declines and the cancellation of carbon taxes will temporarily lower the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [2] - Despite the easing measures, the central bank emphasizes the limitations of monetary policy in addressing structural damages caused by trade wars [2][3] Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the Canadian dollar strengthened, and market pricing indicates that investors do not expect further rate cuts before March 2026 [2] - The yield on Canadian 2-year government bonds rose by 5.2 basis points to 2.406% [2] Financial Stability - The Bank of Canada plans to resume purchasing short-term government bonds in the fourth quarter of 2025, indicating a focus on financial stability [3] - The central bank acknowledges significant regional differences in the housing market and discusses potential financial stability impacts [3] - The central bank warns that current stock valuations appear "overvalued" based on multiple indicators [3]