中信证券：预计美联储将在下次议息会议再次降息25个基点

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points at the October 2025 meeting, aligning with market expectations [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions - Powell's assessment of the economic situation remains similar to that of September, with significant disagreement within the FOMC regarding a potential rate cut in December, indicating that a December rate cut is not guaranteed [1] - CITIC Securities suggests that for a December rate cut to occur, the U.S. government must return to normal operations and release economic data that does not support further rate cuts, which presents a higher threshold than for continuing rate cuts [1] - Currently, among the 12 voting members for 2025, there are still more supporters for a December rate cut, predicting that December may be a "close call" for a rate cut [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following Powell's downplaying of rate cut expectations, the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields have risen, while U.S. stocks and gold have faced some setbacks, suggesting that the market may continue to react to the reduced expectations for rate cuts in the short term [1]