债券回暖趋势仍在，关注十年国债ETF（511260）

Core Viewpoint - Recent significant increase in government bonds, with the 10-year government bond ETF (511260) and government bond ETF (511010) both rising by 0.28% over the past five days, primarily driven by the central bank's resumption of government bond trading, indicating greater opportunities in the bond market for Q4 compared to Q3 [1][4] Group 1: Market Performance - The 10-year government bond ETF (511260) and government bond ETF (511010) have both seen a 0.28% increase recently [1] - The trading volume for the 10-year government bond ETF reached 69.48 million, with a turnover rate of 63.50% [3] Group 2: Macroeconomic Context - Q4 faces certain downward pressures in the macroeconomic environment, including weak demand, declining government spending, and subdued investment on the supply side, while prices are stabilizing with a slight upward trend [4] - Despite the challenges, the PMI has shown a continuous upward trend, reflecting a marginal improvement in economic outlook [4] Group 3: Policy and Institutional Behavior - The central bank has indicated a more relaxed monetary policy following the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, with the resumption of government bond trading signaling optimism [4] - Institutional trading behavior shows a gradual increase in the duration of trading funds after a decline in Q3, suggesting a warming trend in the bond market [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The People's Bank of China has announced the resumption of open market government bond trading, with expectations for the 10-year government bond yield to stabilize between 1.6% and 1.8% [4] - Future monitoring of the scale of central bank relending is advised, as it may indicate a continued loose monetary policy if government bond trading does not crowd out relending [4]