Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but maintains a hawkish stance regarding future rate cuts, indicating no consensus on a December rate cut due to the stable employment market [1][3] - The Fed has officially decided to end its balance sheet reduction on December 1, ceasing the monthly liquidity contraction of $40 billion, and will adjust the structure of maturing asset reinvestments to focus on Treasury securities instead of MBS [2][6] - Powell highlighted that the government shutdown could negatively impact the economy, with previous estimates suggesting a $18 billion loss, but current employment and inflation trends remain stable [3][5] Group 2 - The Fed's description of inflation and employment remains largely unchanged, but the economic outlook has become more optimistic, indicating moderate economic expansion [2][3] - The current level of bank reserves is approaching a liquidity threshold of 9% of GDP, which is critical for maintaining financial stability, as a drop below this level could lead to liquidity risks [6][7] - The potential for the Fed to restart normal balance sheet expansion is contingent on the increase of non-reserve liabilities, which currently represent 53% of the Fed's total liabilities, still below the 60.6% observed in September 2019 [8] Group 3 - The average tariff level in the U.S. is projected to rise from 2.4% to 17.9% by 2025, contributing to higher CPI for imported goods, with current consumer exposure to tariffs at approximately 35% [4][5] - The transmission of tariffs to inflation may increase, potentially invalidating the notion of "transitory inflation" as the burden shifts more towards consumers [4][5] - The dollar index is expected to remain stable around 100, supported by resilient corporate capital expenditures, while the stock market outlook remains positive due to the synergy between AI investments and economic growth [9][10]
【浙商宏观||李超】鹰派降息，缩表停止后关注扩表潜在可能
Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-10-30 02:17