日元贬值触发加息警报 日本央行何去何从

Group 1 - The market anticipates that the Bank of Japan will maintain interest rates at 0.5% while reiterating its commitment to gradually increase borrowing costs to curb further depreciation of the yen and rising inflation [1][2] - There is a divergence within the Bank of Japan's review committee, with hawkish members advocating for immediate rate hikes, while dovish members, led by Governor Ueda, prefer to wait for more data on the economic impact of U.S. tariffs [1] - The new Prime Minister, Suga, has led to a significant reduction in expectations for a rate hike in October, with most analysts predicting that rates will remain unchanged after the meeting [1][2] Group 2 - A survey indicates that most economists expect a rate hike in either October or December, with a target of reaching 0.75% by the end of March [2] - Ueda has emphasized the need to be cautious about tariffs disrupting the wage-price cycle, while also indicating an upward revision of growth forecasts for the current fiscal year [2] - The dollar/yen exchange rate is currently in a phase of directional determination, with key resistance at 153.20, and potential risks if the Bank of Japan issues overly dovish statements [3]