专访袁海霞：“十五五”时期财政继续“积极”，注重可持续

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the role of proactive fiscal policy to stabilize growth, improve people's livelihoods, and adjust the economic structure in response to increasing risks and uncertainties in the macroeconomic environment [1][4]. Fiscal Policy Focus - The "15th Five-Year Plan" highlights the need for proactive fiscal policy and enhanced fiscal sustainability, marking a shift from previous plans that primarily focused on tax and fiscal system reforms [3][4]. - The emphasis on proactive fiscal policy is a response to the changing macroeconomic landscape, where risks and uncertainties are more pronounced [4][5]. Economic Growth and Investment - The plan aims to achieve a per capita GDP level comparable to that of moderately developed countries by 2035, necessitating an average annual GDP growth rate of at least 4.5% over the next five years [6]. - Proactive fiscal policy is deemed essential for stabilizing total demand, guiding long-term investment, and adjusting the economic structure [5][6]. Demand and Consumption - Insufficient effective demand is identified as a major contradiction in the economy during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, necessitating continued fiscal efforts to stimulate demand [7]. - The plan stresses the importance of combining social welfare and consumption promotion, with a focus on enhancing domestic circulation and stabilizing consumer expectations [7][10]. Fiscal Sustainability - Fiscal sustainability is highlighted as a critical aspect of national governance, with the plan addressing the need to balance short-term support and long-term sustainability in fiscal policies [9][10]. - The plan acknowledges the challenges posed by economic transformation, demographic changes, and external uncertainties, which require a robust fiscal framework [9][10]. Recommendations for Fiscal Management - The plan suggests expanding the fiscal base by enhancing the micro-foundation of fiscal revenue, optimizing expenditure structures, and increasing public service spending [11][12]. - It advocates for a comprehensive approach to debt management, including the establishment of a long-term debt management mechanism and the promotion of asset-liability efficiency [13][14]. - Maintaining a low-interest-rate environment is deemed crucial for sustaining fiscal and debt viability, alongside continued fiscal and tax system reforms [15].