智通财经网·2025-10-30 02:48Core Viewpoint - Jianyin International has downgraded the profit forecast for Qingdao Beer Co., Ltd. for the next two years by 3% and 4% respectively, reflecting a slowdown in average selling price growth and a more cautious sales outlook [1] Financial Performance - Qingdao Beer reported a net profit of RMB 1.37 billion in Q3, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, but this fell short of both Jianyin International's and market expectations [1] - The company is expected to see revenue growth accelerate to 2.6% by 2026, driven by a 1.7% increase in sales volume and a 1% increase in average selling price [1] Valuation Adjustments - The valuation benchmark has been shifted to 2026, with the EV/EBITDA multiple reduced from 12x to 10x to reflect the current state of sluggish consumption and a slower premiumization process compared to peers [1] - The target price for the H-shares has been lowered by 7%, from HKD 55.6 to HKD 51.5, while maintaining a "Neutral" rating [1] Market Outlook - Despite some support from pre-Spring Festival inventory and consumption stimulus policies, the consumption market is expected to remain weak through Q4 and into early 2026 [1] - The normalization of industry promotional activities limits the risks to sales growth and market share for the company [1] Operational Developments - The company terminated its plan to acquire Shandong Jimo Huangjiu on October 26, eliminating uncertainties related to the transaction's impact on operations [1] - The company is expected to see an improvement in gross margin by 0.2 percentage points to 42% and an increase in EBIT margin by 0.3 percentage points to 15.8% by 2026, aided by low-cost barley and ongoing product structure improvements [1]