重磅！美联储降息25个基点，12月1日结束量化紧缩

Group 1: Federal Reserve Decision - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to lower the interest rate range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% with a vote of 10-2, indicating significant internal disagreement among members [1][4] - Fed Chair Powell acknowledged the divisions within the committee regarding future rate cuts, stating that a December rate cut is not a certainty [1][4] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, with employment growth slowing and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, although it remains low [2][3] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that the recent government shutdown has reduced GDP by at least $7 billion, with potential for further economic losses if the shutdown continues [2] Group 3: Labor Market Insights - Powell indicated that the labor market is showing signs of weakness, with layoffs and hiring activities remaining low, and a decline in perceptions of job opportunities among households [3][4] - Major companies like Amazon, Paramount, UPS, and Target have announced significant layoffs, indicating a trend of reduced hiring and increased job cuts [3][4] Group 4: Inflation and Tariffs - Powell noted that excluding tariff impacts, current inflation levels are close to the 2% target, with core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation potentially in the range of 2.3% to 2.4% [4] - The Fed's assessment suggests that tariff-induced inflation is present and may rise further, but it is expected to be a one-time increase [4] Group 5: Future Policy Outlook - Recent private sector surveys indicate that despite the government shutdown, economic growth in October has accelerated, with GDPNow forecasting near 4% growth for the quarter [7] - Businesses are cautious about future hiring and investment due to uncertainties surrounding tariff policies, with confidence in the economic outlook at a three-year low [7][8] - Market expectations for rate cuts have decreased following Powell's comments, with a shift from a 93% probability of a cut to around 70% [8]