Sugar Prices Extend Sell-Off to Lowest Levels in More Than 4 Years

Core Insights - Sugar prices have recently declined significantly, with NY sugar reaching a 4.75-year low and London sugar hitting a 4.25-year low [1] - The decline in sugar prices is attributed to increased sugar production in Brazil and expectations of a global sugar surplus [2][3] Group 1: Brazil's Sugar Production - Brazil's Center-South sugar output in the second half of September increased by 10.8% year-on-year to 3.137 million tons [2] - The percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar in Brazil rose to 51.17% from 47.73% year-on-year [2] - Cumulative sugar output for 2025-26 in Brazil through September increased by 0.8% year-on-year to 33.524 million tons [2] - Projections indicate that Brazil's Center-South sugar production for 2026/27 will rise by 3.9% year-on-year to a record 44 million tons [2] Group 2: Global Sugar Supply Outlook - BMI Group forecasts a global sugar surplus of 10.5 million tons for 2025/26 [3] - Covrig Analytics estimates a smaller global sugar surplus of 4.1 million tons for the same period [3] Group 3: India's Sugar Production and Export Potential - India's monsoon rainfall has been 8% above normal, leading to expectations of a bumper sugar crop [4] - Projections suggest India's sugar production for 2025/26 will increase by 19% year-on-year to 34.9 million tons, following a significant decline in 2024/25 [4] - India's sugar mills may export up to 4 million tons of sugar, exceeding earlier expectations of 2 million tons, due to a surplus [5]