Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-10-30 04:33Core Viewpoint - The report from Jianyin International indicates a downward revision of Qingdao Beer Co., Ltd.'s net profit forecasts for the next two years by 3% and 4% respectively, reflecting a slowdown in average selling price growth and a more cautious sales outlook [1] Financial Performance - In Q3, Qingdao Beer reported a year-on-year net profit increase of 1.6% to 1.37 billion RMB, but this fell short of both the bank's and market expectations due to poor revenue performance [1] - The bank anticipates that the fourth quarter and early 2026 will see some support from pre-Spring Festival inventory and consumption stimulus policies [1] Valuation Adjustments - The valuation benchmark has been shifted to 2026, with the EV/EBITDA multiple reduced from 12 times to 10 times to reflect the current state of sluggish consumption and a slower high-end product transition compared to peers [1] Profitability Projections - The bank projects a 0.2 percentage point increase in gross margin to 42% and a 0.3 percentage point increase in EBIT margin to 15.8% by 2026, driven by low-cost barley and continuous improvement in product structure [1] Strategic Decisions - The group has terminated its plan to acquire Shandong Jimo Yellow Wine as of October 26, which eliminates uncertainties related to the transaction's impact on operations [1]