美联储降息后日本央行依旧按兵不动，但加息压力陡增

Core Viewpoint - The market widely anticipates that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates again in December this year or January next year, despite maintaining the current rate at 0.5% during the latest meeting on October 30 [1][8]. Monetary Policy - The Bank of Japan has kept the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% for the sixth consecutive time, aligning with market expectations [1]. - The central bank has raised rates twice since exiting its quantitative easing policy in 2024, but the yen continues to weaken against the dollar, recently falling below the critical level of 150 [1][4]. - The policy committee members expressed a divided opinion, with two members advocating for a 25 basis point increase to 0.75% [3]. Economic Forecasts - The Bank of Japan updated its economic and inflation forecasts, raising the GDP growth prediction for FY2025 from 0.6% to 0.7%, while maintaining forecasts for FY2026 and FY2027 at 0.7% and 1.0%, respectively [3]. - The core CPI forecasts for FY2025 to FY2027 are projected at 2.7%, 1.8%, and 2.0%, respectively, remaining unchanged from previous estimates [3]. Currency and Inflation Concerns - The yen's depreciation is seen as a factor contributing to rising inflation, which could weaken actual potential income and affect consumer spending [7]. - The Bank of Japan's risk report highlighted the volatility of exchange rates and import prices, emphasizing the need to monitor these factors closely [4]. External Influences - There is increasing pressure from both domestic and international policymakers for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates, with analysts suggesting that the necessity for a rate hike has grown [6]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's comments urging Japan to provide the central bank with sufficient policy space have been interpreted as external support for tightening monetary policy [7]. Internal Committee Dynamics - Some members of the Bank of Japan's policy committee are beginning to express concerns about the potential for second-round price effects, with previously dovish members now advocating for rate increases [8]. - The consensus in the market is that the Bank of Japan is likely to raise rates by the end of this year or early next year, with expectations of increasing borrowing costs to 1% after a pause [8].